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Group 2 scenarios, T20 World Cup 2022

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South Africa’s five-wicket win over India brings them much closer to a place in the semi-finals, while jeopardizing Pakistan’s chances of qualification. Here’s a look at how the teams prepare with six matches to go in Group 2.

South Africa
Played: 3, Points: 5, NRR: 2,772, Rem Matches: vs. Pak, Neth

With five points in the prize pool, a superb net run rate (NRR) of 2.772 and a game against the Netherlands still to come, South Africa are in excellent position to seal a place in the semi-finals. If they win against the Netherlands and get up to seven points, they are almost certainly through. If Bangladesh and Zimbabwe win their remaining matches, they will finish with eight and seven points respectively, but even then South Africa’s NRR should be enough for qualification. If India win one of their two remaining games, against Zimbabwe and Bangladesh, then at least one of those teams won’t be a threat to South Africa if they make it to seven.

India
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: 0.844, Matches rem: against Ban, Zim

India’s loss to South Africa means they need to win their last two matches to be sure of qualifying. If they beat Bangladesh but lose to Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe and South Africa could finish with seven points or more. If India beat Zimbabwe but lose to Bangladesh, then Bangladesh and South Africa could qualify ahead of India. Currently there is a 70 per cent chance of showers on Wednesday when India take on Bangladesh, so they will also have an eye on the weather.

Bangladesh
Played: 3, Points: 4, NRR: -1,533, Matches rem: vs Ind, Pak

Bangladesh is at the same level as India, but its NRR is much lower, which could cost it dearly if it were an NRR. Their last two games are against the two Asian giants, and they will need to win at least one to stay in contention. If they win both and finish on eight, they will qualify regardless of other results.

Zimbabwe
Played: 3, Points: 3, NRR: -0.050, Matches rem: v Neth, Ind

Zimbabwe need to win their two remaining matches to stay in contention. If they beat the Netherlands and lose to India, they will only get five points, which will definitely not be enough.

Pakistan
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: 0.765, Matches rem: vs SA, Ban

Pakistan’s chances were damaged by South Africa’s win against India. Pakistan can finish with a maximum of six points, while South Africa will go up to seven if they beat the Netherlands. However, if India lose one of their two remaining games and finish in six, it could still be an NRR battle between the arch-rivals.

If, for example, Pakistan wins its last two games, Bangladesh beats India, which in turn beats Zimbabwe, then the three Asian teams could all finish with six points, fighting for a place (if Africa du Sud beats the Netherlands and finishes with seven). Then Pakistan’s relatively healthy NRR of 0.765 could be an asset as India’s could slip if they lose a game.

Netherlands
Played: 3, Points: 0, NRR: -1.948, Matches rem: vs. Zim, SA

With zero points in three matches, the Netherlands are eliminated from the tournament.

S Rajesh is ESPNcricinfo’s stats editor. @rajeshstats

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